Jun.
DATA

Data

PAPER TRADING

Started
2026-09-16
Portfolios
5 portfolios · 100,000 TWD each
Return basis
Time-weighted (TWR)
Data as of
2026-09-16

Net asset value

Long-term balancedMid-term anchoredMid-term discretionaryHigh-risk themeShort-term swing0050 buy-and-hold00646 buy-and-hold

Index, starting at 100 (= 100,000 TWD of capital); after trading costs, time-weighted. Pick a single portfolio to add a dashed control line: same capital, same start date, fixed rules only, no AI. The gap between the two lines is what the AI's calls added or cost.

This only changes the chart; every section below lists all portfolios.

Only the starting point is available so far.Not started yet: Mid-term anchored, High-risk theme, Short-term swing.0050 buy-and-hold, 00646 buy-and-hold: bought at the open on the first trading day after the start date; not started yet."All" leaves out the control lines; pick a single portfolio to see one.

View as table
DateLong-term balancedMid-term anchoredMid-term discretionaryHigh-risk themeShort-term swing0050 buy-and-hold00646 buy-and-hold
2026-09-16100.00Not started100.00Not startedNot startedNot startedNot started

Performance

Returns are time-weighted (TWR). Benchmarks start with the same capital, bought at the open on the first trading day after the start date and held (purchase costs deducted, dividends reinvested); their costs are not broken down. P&L and costs are shown as a share of each portfolio's capital, with the amount below.

Long-term balancedNo AI

Time-weighted return
0.00%
Max drawdown
0.00%
Control (no AI)
Rules only
Gap from AI
N/A
P&L before costs
0.00%0 TWD
P&L after costs
0.00%0 TWD
Total costs
0.00%0 TWD

Mid-term anchored

Not started

Mid-term discretionary

Time-weighted return
0.00%
Max drawdown
0.00%
Control (no AI)
0.00%
Gap from AI
0.00 pp
P&L before costs
0.00%0 TWD
P&L after costs
0.00%0 TWD
Total costs
0.00%0 TWD

High-risk theme

Not started

Short-term swing

Not started

0050 buy-and-holdBenchmark

Not started

00646 buy-and-holdBenchmark

Not started

Costs

Six items as a share of each portfolio's capital; the total also shows the amount. Taxes and fees include Taiwan's securities transaction tax and the US SEC/TAF fees; withholding covers US dividend withholding and Taiwan's NHI supplementary premium.

Long-term balancedTotal 0.00% · 0 TWD

Commission
0.00%
Taxes & fees
0.00%
Slippage
0.00%
FX
0.00%
Withholding
0.00%
Dividend transfer
0.00%

Mid-term anchored

Not started

Mid-term discretionaryTotal 0.00% · 0 TWD

Commission
0.00%
Taxes & fees
0.00%
Slippage
0.00%
FX
0.00%
Withholding
0.00%
Dividend transfer
0.00%

High-risk theme

Not started

Short-term swing

Not started

CommissionTaxes & feesSlippageFXWithholdingDividend transfer

Holdings

Shown as portfolio weights.Shown in the original Chinese.

Long-term balanced4 open ordersNo AI

Current weights

  • SymbolNameWeight
  • —Cash100.0%

Open orders

  • Buy006208富邦台5018,000 TWDSignal 2026-09-16
  • Buy00635U期元大S&P黃金6,000 TWDSignal 2026-09-16
  • Buy00646元大S&P50018,000 TWDSignal 2026-09-16
  • Buy00865B國泰US短期公債15,000 TWDSignal 2026-09-16

Mid-term anchored

Not started

Mid-term discretionary3 open orders

Current weights

  • SymbolNameWeight
  • —Cash100.0%

Open orders

  • Buy00865B國泰US短期公債10,000 TWDSignal 2026-09-16
  • Buy00635U期元大S&P黃金6,000 TWDSignal 2026-09-16
  • Buy00646元大S&P5008,000 TWDSignal 2026-09-16

High-risk theme

Not started

Short-term swing

Not started

AI proposals

Long-term balanced: no AI, so no proposals. Theses and invalidation conditions are published as the AI wrote them.Shown in the original Chinese.

Mid-term anchored

Strategy:
策略錨點（00631L 30／00646 20／00635U 10／類現金 40）＋趨勢規則；開放槓桿 ETF 00631L
Drawdown rule:
依買進理由。錨點部位跌價時加碼（偏離容忍帶 5pp 就再平衡）；00631L 是因趨勢買的，0050 跌破 200 日均線 2% 就賣出換短債；偏離錨點的判斷部位，失效條件觸發就賣，否則放著。熔斷（回落 20%）時依趨勢降風險，不恐慌全賣
Control (no AI) rule:
錨點＋趨勢規則機械執行（與本組錨點相同，不做任何偏離）

Not started

Mid-term discretionary

Strategy:
ETF＋台美大型股，不含槓桿與放空；AI 在風控範圍內自由判斷
Drawdown rule:
依看法。每筆買進都寫失效條件，觸發就賣；看法仍成立就放著（可加碼，但受單一標的上限）。整組自熔斷高點回落 15% 時只能賣出，熔斷滿 20 個交易日重設高點
Control (no AI) rule:
不含槓桿的錨點＋趨勢（0050 30／00646 30／00635U 10／短債 30；0050 跌破 200 日均線 2% 時改放短債）
2026-09-16Proposals: 3Passed risk checks
Market view

判斷：全球處於擴張後期、往停滯性通膨移動（伊朗戰爭推升油價，Brent 約 108 美元；美國 10 年期殖利率約 5%，為 2007 年以來最高；Fed 預計台灣時間 9/17 凌晨升息一碼，為 2023 年以來首次）。台灣景氣過熱（燈號連 8 紅），但本益比約 25 倍，外資 9/15 前連 4 日賣超，央行 9/17 理監事會有升息壓力。依據：內部研究筆記（2026-09-16 查證）、CNBC 2026-08-28、Yahoo Finance Fed 直播頁、Yahoo 股市 9/15 盤後。操作：第一週只用 3 筆中的 3 筆、成本約 55 元（預算 151 元），採防守配置：短天期美債 25% 當作有收益的現金、黃金 15% 對沖停滯性通膨、美股 20% 保留 AI 獲利成長的參與度；台股暫不追（過熱且外資撤出），保留約 40% 現金，等 Fed 與央行決議後、以及覆盤時再分批。注意：訂單在 9/17 開盤成交，Fed 決議已公布、台灣央行決議尚未公布。

Shown in the original Chinese.
  • #5Buy00865B國泰US短期公債Amount 10,000 TWDOpen
    Signal date
    9/16
    Fill price
    —
    Latest close
    48.85TWD
    Price changeDividend-adjusted
    —
    Probability of rising
    Not given
    Review date
    10/1428 days left
    Thesis and invalidation
    Thesis
    Fed 進入升息循環，短天期美債殖利率維持 4% 左右，存續期間很短，利率風險小；作為有收益的現金部位。不配息，沒有股利匯費；債券 ETF 年底前免證交稅。主要風險是新台幣升值。
    Invalidation
    美元兌台幣（簡報中的台銀即期中價）跌破 30.90（較 9/16 約 31.89 下跌約 3%，匯損約等於 9 個月的利息），或 00865B 收盤低於 47.38（較 9/16 收盤 48.85 下跌 3%）
    Shown in the original Chinese.
  • #6Buy00635U期元大S&P黃金Amount 6,000 TWDOpen
    Signal date
    9/16
    Fill price
    —
    Latest close
    44.69TWD
    Price changeDividend-adjusted
    —
    Probability of rising
    Not given
    Review date
    10/1428 days left
    Thesis and invalidation
    Thesis
    停滯性通膨、全球債市賣壓與中東戰爭，歷史上對黃金有利；00635U 已從 250 日高點回落約 26%，升息的壓力已部分反映。只放小部位做對沖。
    Invalidation
    00635U 收盤低於 42.46（較 9/16 收盤 44.69 下跌 5%），或中東停火、荷莫茲海峽重新開放，使停滯性通膨的前提消失
    Shown in the original Chinese.
  • #7Buy00646元大S&P500Amount 8,000 TWDOpen
    Signal date
    9/16
    Fill price
    —
    Latest close
    76.10TWD
    Price changeDividend-adjusted
    —
    Probability of rising
    Not given
    Review date
    10/1428 days left
    Thesis and invalidation
    Thesis
    S&P 500 近 3 個月大致橫盤，但 2026 年 Q3 獲利預估成長約 29%，預估本益比約 19 倍，不算貴；保留小部位參與 AI 獲利兌現。CAPE 約 40、10 年期殖利率 5%，所以部位不放大。
    Invalidation
    00646 收盤低於 72.30（較 9/16 收盤 76.1 下跌 5%），或美國 10 年期殖利率站上 5.3%（需另行查證）
    Shown in the original Chinese.

High-risk theme

Strategy:
AI／半導體主題集中持股（台美個股＋槓桿 ETF），高波動；機械停損，不攤平
Drawdown rule:
賣掉。個股跌破平均成本 15% 或自建倉後高點回落 25%，由程式自動賣出，10 個交易日內不買回；未觸發停損時，看法仍成立就放著，但不攤平；看法失效就賣。整組回落 30% 熔斷
Control (no AI) rule:
主題個股 60 日動能前 3 名各 25%，每 20 個交易日輪動；套用相同停損、不攤平與冷卻

Not started

Short-term swing

Strategy:
1～10 個交易日的波段交易（台美大型股與指數 ETF）；機械停損與時間停損，不攤平
Drawdown rule:
賣掉。跌破平均成本 5%、自建倉後高點回落 8%，或持有滿 10 個交易日，由程式自動賣出；不攤平，停損後 3 個交易日內不買回。整組回落 15% 熔斷
Control (no AI) rule:
長期多頭中的短線回檔（還原收盤 > 200 日均線且 5 日跌幅超過 3%）買進 30%，最多 3 檔；出場用相同停損

Not started

Forecast scoring

Each proposal carries a probability that the security's dividend-adjusted return from the data-date close to the review date is above zero. Proposals are scored after review; exactly 0.5 does not count toward the hit rate.

No reviewed proposals yet.

Risk controls

Long-term balancedNo AI

N/A

Mid-term anchored

Not started

Mid-term discretionary

Buys this week・2026-W38
3 / 3
Rejected／Stops
0／0
Cost budget（Used / available）
0 / 154 TWDAnnual budget 1,500 TWD
Circuit breaker
NormalFrom peak 0.0% · trips at −15%

High-risk theme

Not started

Short-term swing

Not started

Experiment log

A short note from the AI every trading day, plus a weekly review on the last trading day of each week.Shown in the original Chinese.

No entries yet.

A paper trading experiment, not investment advice.

Costs are estimated with assumptions not yet confirmed with the brokers: Taiwan commissions without discounts, 0.1% for US trades through a Taiwan broker, 0.1% slippage, and assumed dividend timing and transfer fees. All past costs will be recalculated once the actual rates are confirmed.

Data as of the 2026-09-16 close.